The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration on Wednesday forecasts that 11 to 19 tropical cyclones will enter the Philippine area of responsibility from June to November 2025. 鈥� Screenshot from Pagasa鈥檚 climate outlook video/Facebook
MANILA, Philippines 鈥� Eleven to 19 tropical cyclones are forecast to enter the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) from June to November 2025, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa).
This projection is based on Pagasa鈥檚 tropical cyclone outlook presented by weather specialist Joanne Adelino on Wednesday.
She also presented the monthly tropical cyclone forecast:
- June: one to two
- July: two or three
- August: two to three
- September: two to four
- October: two to four
- November: two to three
READ: PH may expect 1 to 2 tropical cyclones in June, says Pagasa
Pagasa earlier noted that one to two tropical cyclones are expected to enter the PAR in June. The first two possible tracks of the tropical cyclones are called recurving scenarios, while the third and fourth ones represent the landfalling scenarios.
Pagasa weather specialist Daniel Villamil previously explained that the low-pressure area (LPA) developing into a tropical cyclone this month may approach the Philippine landmass but recurve northward or northeastward, heading to Taiwan and Japan.
Meanwhile, the third and fourth tracks鈥� landfalling scenarios mean that the tropical cyclone within the PAR may make landfall in the eastern section of Southern Luzon or the Eastern Visayas area.
Pagasa on Wednesday said that the cloud clusters monitored inside the PAR had developed into an LPA. It was last located 585 kilometers east of Infanta, Quezon.
READ: Pagasa: Cloud clusters inside PAR develops into LPA
Forecast rainfall
According to Adelino, near-normal rainfall to generally near-to-above rainfall conditions are forecast in parts of the country from June to November 2025.
Pagasa noted that 鈥渇orecasting rainfall or temperature in probabilistic terms is a way of expressing uncertainty in the future weather/climate.鈥�
June: near normal rainfall in many parts of the country
July: near normal rainfall in many parts of the country except in the Northwestern and Central Luzon (below normal rainfall conditions) and Catanduanes and Surigao (above normal rainfall conditions)
August: near normal rainfall in many parts of the country, except in Cavite (below normal rainfall)
September: near normal rainfall in many parts of the country, except in parts of Luzon (below normal rainfall)
October to November: generally near to above normal rainfall conditions in many parts of the country
Pagasa officially declared the onset of the rainy season last June 2. /das/abc