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MANILA, Philippines 鈥� State seismologists are looking at three scenarios following the explosive eruption of Kanlaon Volcano in Negros Island early Tuesday morning.

Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) Director Teresito Bacolcol said no lava was seen at Kanlaon when they reported the volcano鈥檚 explosive eruption.

According to him, the volcano only emitted steam, but pyroclastic density current was also observed.

Following the early morning eruption, what can the affected communities expect?

Bacolcol said Phivolcs is not ruling out the possibility of the following scenarios:

First, magma might slowly flow out of Kanlaon鈥檚 crater.

鈥淢ababang pag akyat ng magma na umaagos lamang ang lava mula sa kanyang bunganga,鈥� the scientist identified.

(Magma will slowly come out of the volcano鈥檚 crater.)

鈥淚f this happens, this will probably take several months katulad ng nangyari sa Mayon Volcano na it took 6 months bago natapos,鈥� he explained.

(If this happens, this will probably take several months, similar to what happened to Mayon Volcano.)

Second, rapid ascent of magma or the volcano鈥檚 conduit might be blocked.

The Phivolcs official said he believes the explosive eruption early Tuesday could have been triggered by blocked conduits which, later on, caused overpressurization.

鈥淚to ang nangyari dito eh 鈥� Nabarahan ang conduit kasi for the past few days, halos wala tayong earthquakes,鈥� he pointed out.

(This is what happened here 鈥� the conduits were blocked because for the past few days, there were almost zero earthquakes.)

鈥淭wo days ago, dalawang earthquakes lamang and mababa rin ang sulfur dioxide natin. So, ibig sabihin, nabarahan yung conduit ng bulkan and nagkaroon ng overpressurization kaya po sumabog,鈥� he noted.

(Two days ago, only two earthquakes were observed and sulfur dioxide was low so it means, the volcano鈥檚 conduit was blocked and overpressurization happened. That鈥檚 why it erupted.)

Bacolcol said if the second scenario happens, Phivolcs might raise the volcano鈥檚 alert level from three to four.

The movement of magma will stop temporarily and activity will slow down or disappear.

Should the third scenario happen, Bacolcol said Phivolcs may lower the volcano鈥檚 alert level from three to two.

At present, Phivolcs said there is still no clear timeline on Kanlaon鈥檚 activities.

Bacolcol, however, told the public that they will constantly monitor the volcano.

To provide context, he recalled that in the history of Kanlaon, it only emitted lava once and it was recorded in 1092.

鈥淪ana hindi [maulit]. We don鈥檛 want that to happen,鈥� he said.

(We hope it doesn鈥檛 happen again.)

Although kung mangyari man lang, we are hoping na katulad man lang sa nangyari sa Mayon Volcano noong 2023 na effusive eruption lamang 鈥� mabagal na pagdaloy ng lava. Hindi siya explosive eruption,鈥� he remembered.

(Although if it happens, we are hoping that it will only be similar to that of Mayon Volcano鈥檚 2023 effusive eruption 鈥� with its lava only slowly coming out of its crater and not an explosive eruption.)

Phivolcs earlier said the explosive eruption at the summit vent of Kanlaon Volcano began at 5:51 a.m.

The eruption produced a voluminous bent plume approximately 4,000 meters tall that drifted southwest.

鈥淧yroclastic density currents or PDCs descended the slopes on the general southern edifice based on IP and thermal camera monitors. Alert level 3 prevails over Kanlaon Volcano,鈥� said Phivolcs.